The New Rules of Global Power and Who’s Writing Them

The rules that shaped global trade, investment strategy and geopolitical alliances for much of the past 80 years are shifting in ways that many business leaders see as both significant and far-reaching.

Speaking to clients in Jersey in June, Goolam Ballim, Chief Economist at Standard Bank Group, shared his assessment of the changing global landscape, arguing that the forces reshaping geopolitics are structural rather than temporary.

The framing of Ballim’s presentation, Ruptured World, reflected that view. He argued that the post-1945 architecture of open trade and multilateral cooperation that underpinned decades of globalisation has increasingly given way to a more complex geopolitical environment.

“It isn’t cyclical, it isn’t fleeting,” he said. “Geopolitical frictions are now structural. They are going to remain embedded in the world in which we live.”

In Ballim’s view, these developments have changed the context in which investment and business decisions are made.

“Corporate entities and investment strategy that once upon a time largely looked at macroeconomic data prior to making a decision must now also incorporate political intent,” he said. “Political intent for many years was a secondary consideration. Now, political intent is a primary consideration in the investment thesis.”

 

America: exceptional, but no longer unchallenged

The United States remains central to any discussion of global power. Ballim was careful to frame his position clearly.

“American exceptionalism remains intact. The difference is that that exceptionalism is now contested,” he told the audience. “America will remain a global dynamo, but it will be a contested order.”

To support that view, Ballim pointed to several indicators of continued US economic strength. The US accounts for approximately 62% of global stock market capitalisation, while the dollar, despite its declining share of global trade, remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. He also highlighted the depth and liquidity of US financial markets as a continuing competitive advantage.

At the same time, Ballim argued that military dominance no longer determines geopolitical outcomes as decisively as it once did. He cited the recent US-Iran conflict as an illustration of how asymmetric tactics can influence geopolitical outcomes, even where there is a significant imbalance in conventional military capability.

The broader trend towards increased defence spending also carries wider economic implications, he suggested. Referring to economic research on the “guns versus butter” trade-off, Ballim noted that long-term infrastructure investment has historically generated higher economic multipliers than defence expenditure over comparable periods.

“Peacetime economics tends to generate far higher global economic growth than during times of war,” he said. “Wartime episodes generally generate lower levels of economic growth in their aftermath.”

 

The minerals race and Africa’s moment

Alongside military power, Ballim identified control of critical mineral supply chains as a second axis of geopolitical influence that he believes will become increasingly important over the coming decades.

He highlighted China’s strong position across several critical mineral supply chains, including lithium, cobalt, copper and rare earth elements that are essential for technologies such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, energy infrastructure and artificial intelligence.

Ballim drew parallels with earlier industrial revolutions, arguing that technological leadership has historically reshaped the global balance of power.

“Today’s spinning jenny is artificial intelligence,” he said. “It is immersive reality technologies. It is quantum computing. Nations at the forefront of that end game, combined with nations that harbour the resources necessary to build out the infrastructure for it, will dominate.”

Ballim believes these developments could have significant implications for Africa. Southern Africa holds substantial reserves of lithium, platinum, copper and rare earth minerals, resources that are attracting growing international attention as countries seek to strengthen and diversify critical supply chains.

He noted that the continent has become an increasingly important geopolitical partner, with major economies seeking to secure access to strategic resources through long-term commercial relationships.

Standard Bank Group, Africa’s largest banking group by assets, operates across many of the continent’s major economies, providing the bank with insights into regional economic developments.

 

Navigating a changing global landscape

Looking ahead, Ballim identified three characteristics that he believes are likely to become increasingly important in the evolving global environment: adaptability, strategic positioning and institutional resilience.

He also argued that the world is not de-globalising but regionalising, with trade becoming more bilateral, more localised and increasingly shaped by trusted relationships rather than broad multilateral frameworks. In his view, as the influence of institutions such as the World Trade Organization has evolved, bilateral trade agreements have become increasingly prominent across Europe, Africa and Asia.

“The world is hungry for commercial trust,” Ballim said during the Q&A session. “Which nations, institutions and partners can reliably provide that trust” is, in his view, one of the defining commercial questions of the decade ahead.

While Ballim argued that these structural shifts are likely to endure, he acknowledged that geopolitical developments will continue to evolve, requiring businesses and policymakers alike to adapt to an increasingly complex global environment.

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